{"created":"2023-05-15T15:28:52.892224+00:00","id":18236,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"332df75c-7cb9-482b-af0f-80c21b60d5df"},"_deposit":{"created_by":3,"id":"18236","owners":[3],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"18236"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp:00018236","sets":["95:887:902"]},"author_link":["29304"],"item_120_alternative_title_1":{"attribute_name":"タイトル（別言語）","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_alternative_title":"Prediction Accuracy of the Tokyo Gubernatorial Election : Drawing a Comparison between Election Surveys by RDD and Exit Polls"}]},"item_120_biblio_info_8":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2014","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"7","bibliographicPageEnd":"67","bibliographicPageStart":"60","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"政策と調査"}]}]},"item_120_date_31":{"attribute_name":"作成日","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_date_issued_datetime":"2018-07-02","subitem_date_issued_type":"Created"}]},"item_120_description_19":{"attribute_name":"概要","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"携帯電話が急速に普及するなかで、報道機関は、固定電話を対象にしたRDD（Random Digit Dialing）方式の電話調査で選挙情勢を正確に予測できるのだろうか。本稿は、RDD調査の結果と期日前・投開票当日の出口調査の結果を比較し、RDD調査による若年層の投票意向が出口調査とは大きく異なっていることを明らかにする。さらに、RDD調査では性・年代別で1票も回収できない層があり、若年層だけでなく中年層にも広がっていることを示す。選挙情勢調査は、公示日直後から投開票日までの間に複数回実施されている。このうち、早期の調査では、候補者名を読み上げる順番が回答結果に影響を及ぼす可能性のあることが分かった。ただし、有名な候補者は読み上げる順番の影響を受けていないようである。\n\nThe use of cell phones is becoming increasingly widespread. Can news media accurately predict the results of election by surveys conducted through Random Digit Dialing to landline telephone only? This article compares data on election surveys conducted through RDD and exit polls. There are clear differences that are related to the voting behavior of youth. In addiction, RDD generates little response from young voters, and there is a steady decline in responses from middle-aged voters as well. Recently, temporal sequence surveys have been conducted during elections. Early surveys are found to possibly be affected by response order effects, although this does not seem to be the case with popular candidates.","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_20":{"attribute_name":"目次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"１．はじめに\n２．調査概要\n３．各紙のRDD調査掲載日\n　３－１．得票結果\n４．候補者調査支持率の推移\n５．電話調査は世論を捉えているか\n　５－１．2014年調査のサンプル空欄\n　５－２．空欄の推移\n６．候補者を昇順降順で読み上げると\n７．おわりに","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_29":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"text","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_30":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_identifier_registration":{"attribute_name":"ID登録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_reg_text":"10.24561/00018225","subitem_identifier_reg_type":"JaLC"}]},"item_120_publisher_11":{"attribute_name":"出版者名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"埼玉大学社会調査研究センター"}]},"item_120_source_id_14":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"2186411X","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_120_text_27":{"attribute_name":"版","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"[出版社版] "}]},"item_120_text_3":{"attribute_name":"著者 ローマ字","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"TAKEDA, Kenji"}]},"item_120_text_32":{"attribute_name":"アイテムID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"KY-AA12569705-07-09"}]},"item_120_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者 所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"中日新聞東京本社"}]},"item_120_text_9":{"attribute_name":"年月次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"2014-11"}]},"item_120_version_type_28":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85","subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"竹田, 健治"},{"creatorName":"タケダ, ケンジ","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2018-07-02"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"KY-AA12569705-07-09.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"331.6 kB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"KY-AA12569705-07-09.pdf","url":"https://sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/18236/files/KY-AA12569705-07-09.pdf"},"version_id":"9bbf687c-b86d-472c-ac40-c622340e3d78"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"東京都知事選挙の予測精度 : RDD調査と出口調査の比較〔報告〕","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"東京都知事選挙の予測精度 : RDD調査と出口調査の比較〔報告〕"}]},"item_type_id":"120","owner":"3","path":["902"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2018-07-02"},"publish_date":"2018-07-02","publish_status":"0","recid":"18236","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["東京都知事選挙の予測精度 : RDD調査と出口調査の比較〔報告〕"],"weko_creator_id":"3","weko_shared_id":3},"updated":"2023-05-15T18:01:18.313350+00:00"}