{"created":"2023-05-15T15:28:53.784748+00:00","id":18257,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"5a93b6f0-e3ff-4632-bfa8-6e7f7b6633a8"},"_deposit":{"created_by":3,"id":"18257","owners":[3],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"18257"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp:00018257","sets":["95:887:904"]},"author_link":["29316"],"item_120_alternative_title_1":{"attribute_name":"タイトル（別言語）","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_alternative_title":"Possibility of Election Prediction through an Internet Survey"}]},"item_120_biblio_info_8":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2015","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"9","bibliographicPageEnd":"34","bibliographicPageStart":"27","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"政策と調査"}]}]},"item_120_date_31":{"attribute_name":"作成日","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_date_issued_datetime":"2018-07-05","subitem_date_issued_type":"Created"}]},"item_120_description_19":{"attribute_name":"概要","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"近年，現行のRDD 方式による電話調査では有権者の投票動向を十分に捉えられていない疑いが強い．電話調査を代替する手法の選択肢としてインターネット調査が考えられる．朝日新聞社が2012 年と2014 年の衆院選で実施したネット調査の結果をみると，各政党の趨勢を捉えることができており，選挙予測に役立つ知見を与えてくれる可能性がある．さらに，2006 年の長野県知事選で実施した郵送・ネット並行調査のデータを用いて「傾向スコア補正」を試行し，２つのネット調査うちの１つが郵送調査の結果に補正できることを確認した．\n\nIn recent years, telephone surveys that use the random digit dialing (RDD) method have been strongly suspected of leading to incorrect results about voting behavior. We consider that Internet surveys serve as an alternative to telephone surveys. The results of Internet surveys conducted by the Asahi Shimbun in the House of Representatives elections in 2012 and 2014 showed successful estimation and capability of this useful survey mode for election prediction. In addition, when we use the parallel data collected through both mail and Internet surveys in Nagano gubernatorial election in 2006 and apply \"propensity score adjustment\" in the prediction, the answer is equal to the election result for a case of two experiments.","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_20":{"attribute_name":"目次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"１．はじめに\n２．今回実施したネット調査の設計\n３．「比例区投票先」のトレンドと過去データとの比較\n４．ネット調査で比例区の予測は可能か\n５．傾向スコア補正による選挙予測の可能性\n６．おわりに","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_29":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"text","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_30":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_identifier_registration":{"attribute_name":"ID登録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_reg_text":"10.24561/00018246","subitem_identifier_reg_type":"JaLC"}]},"item_120_publisher_11":{"attribute_name":"出版者名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"埼玉大学社会調査研究センター"}]},"item_120_source_id_14":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"2186411X","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_120_text_27":{"attribute_name":"版","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"[出版社版] "}]},"item_120_text_3":{"attribute_name":"著者 ローマ字","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"EGUCHI, Tatsuya"}]},"item_120_text_32":{"attribute_name":"アイテムID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"KY-AA12569705-09-05"}]},"item_120_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者 所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"朝日新聞社 世論調査部"}]},"item_120_text_9":{"attribute_name":"年月次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"2015-11"}]},"item_120_version_type_28":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85","subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"江口, 達也"},{"creatorName":"エグチ, タツヤ","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2018-07-05"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"KY-AA12569705-09-05.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"351.5 kB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"KY-AA12569705-09-05.pdf","url":"https://sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/18257/files/KY-AA12569705-09-05.pdf"},"version_id":"cd751292-f266-4380-a40e-b1c9ed0cd0e6"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"インターネット調査による選挙予測の可能性〔論文〕","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"インターネット調査による選挙予測の可能性〔論文〕"}]},"item_type_id":"120","owner":"3","path":["904"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2018-07-05"},"publish_date":"2018-07-05","publish_status":"0","recid":"18257","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["インターネット調査による選挙予測の可能性〔論文〕"],"weko_creator_id":"3","weko_shared_id":3},"updated":"2023-05-15T18:00:33.690221+00:00"}