{"created":"2023-05-15T15:28:54.682559+00:00","id":18278,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"7ea7b2da-3010-4beb-9806-b8838a106f76"},"_deposit":{"created_by":3,"id":"18278","owners":[3],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"18278"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp:00018278","sets":["95:887:906"]},"author_link":["29337"],"item_120_alternative_title_1":{"attribute_name":"タイトル（別言語）","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_alternative_title":"Revisiting the Big Data-Driven Forecast of Japan’s 24th Upper House Election by Yahoo! JAPAN"}]},"item_120_biblio_info_8":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2016","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"11","bibliographicPageEnd":"82","bibliographicPageStart":"75","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"政策と調査"}]}]},"item_120_date_31":{"attribute_name":"作成日","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_date_issued_datetime":"2018-07-09","subitem_date_issued_type":"Created"}]},"item_120_description_19":{"attribute_name":"概要","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"ヤフーにおける検索クエリデータ（注目度）をもとに第24回参院選の予測を行った．前回の参院選は96％の一致だったが、今回は91％の一致に終わった．ズレの8割は野党連合による勝利を当てられなかったことによるものだった．党別の検索ボリュームと獲得票数の相関は低下したが、データに基づきコンバージョン補正を行ったところほぼ成功した．選挙前の注目度の盛り上がりはどの党もほぼ予測どおりであった．注目度の多寡によるベースライン補正は今回の選挙でも有効だった．公明党の得票率には周期性があるが今回は乖離が大きく、選挙区においては候補者数と得票率が直結していることを発見した．\n\nWe conducted a forecast of Japan’s 24th Upper House election based on Yahoo! JAPAN’s search query data. The result was 91% match, lower than 96% match achieved in the 2013 election. Opposition alliance was a major cause of the mismatch. Conversion correction by party, as well as base-line adjustment by total related query volume worked fine. We also found that ballot earning rate of New Komeito in non-proportional district highly correlated with the number of candidates.","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_20":{"attribute_name":"目次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"1. 2016 参議院議員選挙の結果と予測との比較\n2. 前提条件と実際の結果の比較検証\n3. 振り返りのまとめ","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_29":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"text","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_30":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_identifier_registration":{"attribute_name":"ID登録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_reg_text":"10.24561/00018267","subitem_identifier_reg_type":"JaLC"}]},"item_120_publisher_11":{"attribute_name":"出版者名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"埼玉大学社会調査研究センター"}]},"item_120_source_id_14":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"2186411X","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_120_text_27":{"attribute_name":"版","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"[出版社版] "}]},"item_120_text_3":{"attribute_name":"著者 ローマ字","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"ATAKA, Kazuto"}]},"item_120_text_32":{"attribute_name":"アイテムID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"KY-AA12569705-11-08"}]},"item_120_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者 所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"ヤフー株式会社 チーフストラテジーオフィサー : CSO"}]},"item_120_text_9":{"attribute_name":"年月次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"2016-11"}]},"item_120_version_type_28":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85","subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"安宅, 和人"},{"creatorName":"アタカ, カズト","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2018-07-09"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"KY-AA12569705-11-08.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"1.1 MB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"KY-AA12569705-11-08.pdf","url":"https://sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/18278/files/KY-AA12569705-11-08.pdf"},"version_id":"2cf9908e-cbf3-423c-8f92-538aa8763f76"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"第24回参議院選挙の議席数予測を振り返る : Yahoo! JAPAN ビッグデータレポート〔論文〕","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"第24回参議院選挙の議席数予測を振り返る : Yahoo! JAPAN ビッグデータレポート〔論文〕"}]},"item_type_id":"120","owner":"3","path":["906"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2018-07-09"},"publish_date":"2018-07-09","publish_status":"0","recid":"18278","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["第24回参議院選挙の議席数予測を振り返る : Yahoo! JAPAN ビッグデータレポート〔論文〕"],"weko_creator_id":"3","weko_shared_id":3},"updated":"2023-05-15T18:00:11.754633+00:00"}