@article{oai:sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp:00018321,
 author = {小礒, 寿生 and 北田, 俊一 and 松田, 映二},
 issue = {14},
 journal = {政策と調査},
 month = {},
 note = {読売，日経，朝日，毎日の4 つの大手新聞社と共同通信のうちどの社の選挙予測の精度が高いのかを，全小選挙区の情勢記事を比較することで調べた．今回の分析では，日経新聞が正確だったと判定した．その理由として，①1 位予測の的中率が91.3%で一番よかった，②「接戦」の表現をできるだけ使わずに当選と落選のどちらに近いかの表現を多く使用した，③正確なうえに素早い報道がなされたことが挙げられる．本稿は，予測の信頼性への判断材料や予測報道の改善に資する分析結果とデータを開示する．

We have compared prediction articles covering each election district from four newspaper companies and one news service agency; Yomiuri, Nihon Keizai(Nikkei), Asahi, Mainichi Shimbun Newspaper, and Kyodo Tsushin. Nikkei Shimbun shows better accuracy. This paper explains the reasons for this as follows: (1) the accuracy rate was 91.3% among the best predictions for all candidates, (2) the expressions with respect to election status did not use “head-to-head” and, as much as possible, instead showed which candidate was “winning” or “losing,” and (3) accurate and quick reporting were conducted. We anticipate the data to be useful for both the media and the electorate. The media is able to use the data for improving predictions, and electorates are able to select reliable news media for election broadcasts., １. 2017 年衆院選の情勢報道
２．小選挙区での当選予想の的中率
３．予想をはずした選挙区
４．記事中の情勢表現の的確さ
５．今後の課題
【後記】, text, application/pdf},
 pages = {53--78},
 title = {2017 年衆院選における選挙予測の比較分析 : 報道各社の予測の正確さを検証する〔論文〕},
 year = {2018},
 yomi = {コイソ, ヒサオ and キタダ, シュンイチ and マツダ, エイジ}
}