@article{oai:sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp:00018618,
 author = {松田, 映二},
 issue = {15},
 journal = {政策と調査},
 month = {},
 note = {読売，日経，朝日，毎日の4つの大手新聞社と共同通信のうちどの社の選挙予測の精度が高いのかを，全小選挙区の情勢記事を比較することで調べた．その結果，報道内容は速報競争による調査設計の影響を受けていることが明らかになった．その理由として，①実質回収率が一番低い共同の予測精度が悪かった，②小選挙区の情勢を他社より早く報道した読売は接戦の情勢が多かった，③中盤情勢を報道した毎日の立憲民主獲得予想議席が一番選挙結果に近かった．本稿は，予測報道の改善に資する分析結果を開示すると同時に，今後の選挙情勢調査のあり方も論じる．

In this study, we compare articles that predicted the results of the 2017 Lower House Election in Japan. These articles covered each election district and were published by four newspaper companies and one news service agency, namely, Yomiuri, Nihon Keizai (Nikkei), Asahi, Mainichi Shimbun Newspaper, and Kyodo Tsushin. Media forecasts based on earlier surveys made worse predictions. This paper finds that: (1) the prediction by Kyodo that had gotten the lowest response rate was highly inaccurate, (2) Yomiuri had made predictions in each election district faster than other media had, and showed close battle for many ditricts, and (3) the survey conducted by Mainichi in the middle stage of the race was slower than other media and had made the most accurate predictions regarding number of seats won by The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP). We present data that can be useful in improving the quality and accuracy of election predictions. We also discuss the future of election predictions using new survey methodologies., １．はじめに
２．調査の設計と運用の影響
　２－１．速報競争
　２－２．調査設計と調査誤差(Survey Error)
３．統計処理（サイエンス）と情勢判断（アート）
　３－１．議席および当落予想の精度
　３－２．誤差幅と当選確率の関係
４．選挙区での当落予想の精度
５．終わりに, text, application/pdf},
 pages = {29--38},
 title = {2017 年衆議院選挙予測における課題 : 報道と結果の比較による考察〔論文〕},
 year = {2018},
 yomi = {マツダ, エイジ}
}