{"created":"2023-05-15T15:29:05.271569+00:00","id":18620,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"bc85f51f-a625-466b-8179-211aca3c14cc"},"_deposit":{"created_by":3,"id":"18620","owners":[3],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"18620"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp:00018620","sets":["95:887:931"]},"author_link":["29600"],"item_120_alternative_title_1":{"attribute_name":"タイトル（別言語）","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_alternative_title":"Verifying the Selective Reaction of Voters using Online Surveys"}]},"item_120_biblio_info_8":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2018","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"15","bibliographicPageEnd":"66","bibliographicPageStart":"59","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"政策と調査"}]}]},"item_120_date_31":{"attribute_name":"作成日","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_date_issued_datetime":"2019-04-25","subitem_date_issued_type":"Created"}]},"item_120_description_19":{"attribute_name":"概要","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"ネットリサーチはマーケティング・リサーチでよく用いられているが，選挙情勢調査ではほとんど用いられていない．この理由としては，ネットリサーチはアクセスパネルを対象としており，回答者バイアスが避けられないということに起因している．しかしながら，ネットリサーチで選挙情勢調査を実施した場合に，どの程度の予測精度があるのかは充分に検証されてはいるわけではない．本研究では，2017年の衆議院選をケーススタディとして，ネットリサーチの再現性や選挙報道によるアナウンスメント効果がどの程度あるのかを確認した．さらに，小選挙区においては調査データを単純に集計するのではなく，マーケティング・リサーチでよく使われている予測手法を適用することで，選挙区ごとの各政党の選択確率の予測を試みた．\n\nAlthough online surveys are often used in market research, they are rarely used in an election setting. This is because online surveys cover certain access panels, so the bias of respondents cannot be avoided. However, the extent of prediction accuracy when an election survey is conducted online has not been sufficiently verified.\nThis paper focuses on the accuracy of election prediction by online surveys and the actual election announcement through news reports. Moreover, instead of simply summarizing the survey data, we attempted to predict the probability of voting for political parties in each constituency by applying prediction methods commonly used in market research.","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_20":{"attribute_name":"目次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"１．はじめに\n２．実験調査の実施概要\n３．事後調査における投票先\n４．選挙情勢報道のアナウンスメント効果の分析\n５．小選挙区における選択行動実験と予測モデルの構築\n６．小選挙区における予測シミュレーション\n７．本研究の成果と課題","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_29":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"text","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_30":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_identifier_registration":{"attribute_name":"ID登録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_reg_text":"10.24561/00018589","subitem_identifier_reg_type":"JaLC"}]},"item_120_publisher_11":{"attribute_name":"出版者名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"埼玉大学社会調査研究センター"}]},"item_120_source_id_14":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"2186411X","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_120_text_27":{"attribute_name":"版","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"[出版社版]"}]},"item_120_text_3":{"attribute_name":"著者 ローマ字","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"MURAKAMI, Tomoaki"}]},"item_120_text_32":{"attribute_name":"アイテムID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"KY-AA12569705-15-08"}]},"item_120_text_9":{"attribute_name":"年月次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"2018-10"}]},"item_120_version_type_28":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85","subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"村上, 智章"},{"creatorName":"ムラカミ, トモアキ","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2019-04-25"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"KY-AA12569705-15-08.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"686.1 kB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"KY-AA12569705-15-08.pdf","url":"https://sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/18620/files/KY-AA12569705-15-08.pdf"},"version_id":"4c572962-ad1d-49de-9b31-3353c59b6e2c"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"ネットリサーチを用いた有権者の選択反応実験の試み〔論文〕","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"ネットリサーチを用いた有権者の選択反応実験の試み〔論文〕"}]},"item_type_id":"120","owner":"3","path":["931"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2019-04-25"},"publish_date":"2019-04-25","publish_status":"0","recid":"18620","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["ネットリサーチを用いた有権者の選択反応実験の試み〔論文〕"],"weko_creator_id":"3","weko_shared_id":3},"updated":"2023-05-15T17:58:52.416468+00:00"}