{"created":"2023-05-15T15:29:14.885808+00:00","id":18870,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"6c8631cb-62c9-450e-b465-a50102e7be6b"},"_deposit":{"created_by":3,"id":"18870","owners":[3],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"18870"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp:00018870","sets":["95:887:953"]},"author_link":["29827","29826"],"item_120_alternative_title_1":{"attribute_name":"タイトル（別言語）","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_alternative_title":"How Does an Increase in Early Voting Affect Forecasting? : Studying the Process by Comparing Exit Polls with Election Results"}]},"item_120_biblio_info_8":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2019","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"17","bibliographicPageEnd":"54","bibliographicPageStart":"47","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"政策と調査"}]}]},"item_120_date_31":{"attribute_name":"作成日","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_date_issued_datetime":"2020-02-19","subitem_date_issued_type":"Created"}]},"item_120_description_19":{"attribute_name":"概要","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"期日前投票制度は投票率向上を目的に2004 年参院選から導入され，期日前投票は増加を続け2017 年衆院選では2100 万人を超えた．投票者の約3 人に1 人が期日前投票をしたことになる．その一方で投票率は伸びておらず，投票日に投票する人は減っている．本稿では期日前投票の増加が出口調査の精度に影響をあたえているのかどうかを候補者ごとの出口調査支持率と選挙結果を比較することで調べた．その結果，期日前投票が増加している最近の選挙でも当日出口調査の精度は落ちていないことが分かった．ふつうの高齢者層で期日前投票へ移っていることが出口調査の分析から分かり，組織的な投票が多いといわれていた期日前投票層が薄められてきている．ただ，公明党支持層は期日前投票を行う割合が高いことも分かっており，期日前出口調査の対応も必要になっている．\n\nThe early voting system was introduced in the 2004 Upper House election with the aim of improving the voter turnout. Early voting has since continued to increase. In the 2017 Lower House election, the number of early voters had exceeded 21 million; about 1 in 3 were early voters. However, the voter turnout has not increased; rather, the number of people who vote on the election day has decreased. In this study, we investigated whether the increase in early voting affects the accuracy of exit polls by comparing the exit poll for each candidate with the election results. It was found that the accuracy of the exit poll was not affected, even with increased early voting in recent elections. The analysis of the exit poll shows that elderly people are choosing to vote early. The effect of early voting, which was considered to include organized voting, has been diluted. However, it is known that the supporters of the Komeito Party have a high percentage of early voting. It is also necessary to get the responses to the exit poll before the scheduled election day.","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_20":{"attribute_name":"目次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"１. はじめに\n２. 当日出口調査\n　2-1. 衆院選\n　2-2. 参院選\n３. 期日前出口調査\n４．期日前と投票日の有権者の差\n５．終わりに","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_29":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"text","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_description_30":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_120_identifier_registration":{"attribute_name":"ID登録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_reg_text":"10.24561/00018839","subitem_identifier_reg_type":"JaLC"}]},"item_120_publisher_11":{"attribute_name":"出版者名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"埼玉大学社会調査研究センター"}]},"item_120_source_id_14":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"2186411X","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_120_text_27":{"attribute_name":"版","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"[出版社版]"}]},"item_120_text_3":{"attribute_name":"著者 ローマ字","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"YAMASHITA, Hiroshi"},{"subitem_text_value":"OGURI, Masahiko"}]},"item_120_text_32":{"attribute_name":"アイテムID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"KY-AA12569705-17-07"}]},"item_120_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者 所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"中日新聞社編集局選挙調査室"},{"subitem_text_value":"福井コンピュータホールディングスITS事業部"}]},"item_120_text_9":{"attribute_name":"年月次","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"2019-12"}]},"item_120_version_type_28":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85","subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"山下, 洋史"},{"creatorName":"ヤマシタ, ヒロシ","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"大栗, 正彦"},{"creatorName":"オオグリ, マサヒコ","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2020-02-20"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"KY-AA12569705-17-07.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"999.2 kB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"KY-AA12569705-17-07.pdf","url":"https://sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/18870/files/KY-AA12569705-17-07.pdf"},"version_id":"adae29d6-0225-4de5-9214-6d9e9062f71e"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"期日前投票の増加はどう影響するか : 出口調査と選挙結果の比較による考察〔論文〕","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"期日前投票の増加はどう影響するか : 出口調査と選挙結果の比較による考察〔論文〕"}]},"item_type_id":"120","owner":"3","path":["953"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2020-02-20"},"publish_date":"2020-02-20","publish_status":"0","recid":"18870","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["期日前投票の増加はどう影響するか : 出口調査と選挙結果の比較による考察〔論文〕"],"weko_creator_id":"3","weko_shared_id":3},"updated":"2023-05-15T16:42:25.328107+00:00"}