@phdthesis{oai:sucra.repo.nii.ac.jp:00019072,
 author = {Khinsamone, Soukvisan},
 month = {},
 note = {vii, 96 p., The economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been a center of economic growth in Asia as well as in the world for the past decades. The annual growth rate of ASEAN economies recorded 5.0 percent on average during the period from 1990 to 2016, while those of Asian and the world economies showed 4.2 and 2.7 percent, respectively. The ASEAN, at the same time, contains a variety of economies with different stages of development. According to the World Bank Analytical Classifications in 2016, Brunei and Singapore are classified into “High income”; Malaysia and Thailand into “Upper middle income”; Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines and Vietnam into “Lower middle income”. Among the middle-income economies, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines have become middle incomers earlier than Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam, and so the former group is called “forerunners” while the latter is called “latecomers.”
The heterogeneity in the ASEAN economies is also found from the perspectives of their abundance of natural resources and industrial structures. The contribution of resource sector in each ASEAN economy by the GDP share of mining and utility sectors indicated much difference in the GDP share of resource sector from Brunei (43.5%) to Singapore (1.5%). Focusing on the middle-income economies that have the resource contribution to their GDP by around 10 to 20 percent: Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, and Myanmar, their industrial structures in 2015 could be compared with those in 1980 as follows. The forerunners, Malaysia and Indonesia, reduced the GDP share of mining and utility sectors, and instead raised that of the manufacturing sector. In particular, Indonesia now has the larger share in manufacturing than in mining and utility sector, though she previously had a dominant share of mining and utility as an oil-producing country. The latecomers, Lao PDR and Myanmar, on the other hand, raised their shares of mining and utility as well as their manufacturing sector’s shares. The critical question is, then, in what way the industrial structure should be designed in the future for the latecomers who are expected to sustain their economic growth, in other words, whether the latecomers should continue to depend heavily on the resource sector or transform their industrial structures towards manufacturing-oriented ones just like the cases of forerunners of Malaysia and Indonesia.
From a theoretical perspective, this issue could be discussed in the context of the “resource curse” hypothesis initially proposed by Auty (1993): resource-rich countries tend to grow more slowly than resource-poor countries. The logic of this hypothesis is a crowding-out if we follow Sachs and Warner (2001): natural resources crow-out activity x; activity x drives growth; therefore, natural resources harm growth. As there is a diversity of views regarding what drives growth, we have a similar diversity of views on the natural resource question. As far as purely economic issues are concerned, however, the leading explanations could be summarized into two kinds of crowding-out logics as follows. One logic is that natural resources crowd-out manufacturing activities from a sectoral perspective, which has been often referred to as the applicability of the Dutch Disease. The other logic is that natural resources crowd-out savings and investment from an intertemporal perspective, which has been argued in the context of capital accumulation such as the Hartwick rule.
This dissertation aimed to examine the applicability of the resource curse hypothesis focusing on the selected resource-rich ASEAN economies by using a vector auto-regression (VAR) model as a quantitative analytical method. For the analytical samples, we targeted the four middle-income economies in which the GDP share of resource sector accounts for around 10 to 20 percent in 2015: Malaysia and Indonesia as the forerunners, and Lao PDR and Myanmar as the latecomers. As we observed, there is a contrast in the trends in their industrial structures for 1980-2015: the forerunners experienced the decline in the resource sector and the increase in manufacturing sector instead, and the latecomers showed the expansion in the resource sector. If the resource curse effect is found in the latecomers but not in the forerunners through the VAR model estimation, some lessons from the forerunners could be extracted to apply to the latecomers on the future design of the industrial strategies. The dissertation also discussed how to mobilize the resource revenues for a productive use in the context of public financial management focusing on Lao PDR, in other words, how the current public financial management in Lao PDR should be transformed from resource-curse form to resource-blessing one.
The empirical study found that the latecomers of Lao PDR and Myanmar with the rising trends in their resource sector share have suffered from the Ditch Disease over the sample period with the declining share of manufacturing in their economies. Lao PDR has had the capital accumulation effect, but it may come from the intensive investment for natural resource development, thereby not being able to offset the Dutch Disease effect. In sum, the resource-rich latecomers of Lao PDR and Myanmar still stay at the phase of the resource curse. The forerunners of Indonesia and Malaysia have had no Dutch Disease effect at least in the post-crisis period and instead have enjoyed the capital accumulation effect, although Indonesia had experienced the Dutch Disease during the pre-crisis period. Thus, the forerunners of Indonesia and Malaysia that were previously resource-rich have transformed their economic structure from the Dutch Disease phase to manufacturing-oriented one through the capital accumulation effect. The lessons from the forerunners’ experiences for the latecomers to escape from the Dutch Disease could be extracted as follows. First, some public financial system of allocating resource revenues for investment and development projects should be urgently established in Lao PDR and Myanmar, who have a rising share of resource sector and also get the Dutch Disease effect. Second, the diversification of industries by improving business environments should be facilitated for the latecomers of Lao PDR and Myanmar. Third, the latecomers of Lao PDR and Myanmar who suffer from the Dutch Disease could turn out to enjoy resource blessing with the improvement of their institutional qualities.
Focusing on the public financial management of Lao PDR, some structural reformations to overcome the Dutch Disease were suggested as follows. The current budget system in Lao PDR have mixed up the resource revenues with the ordinary budget, and it has brought about such difficulties as the volatility in revenue sources, the prevention of capital accumulation and the high risk of enlarging overall budget deficit. Thus the dissertation proposed to set up natural resource funds to insulate the resource revenues from the ordinary budget for Lao budget system. Regarding the functions of the funds, they should focus on stabilization and investments. For the stabilization fund, the Chile’s fund with a flexible operational rule could be a good reference, while the investment should concentrate on education, health and economic infrastructure to diversify the industries for the sustainable development. As for the institutional arrangements of the fund, the type of “virtual” funds is recommendable considering the Lao institutional quality, and the Special Account system in Japan could be a good reference., Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. i
Chapter I Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1
Chapter II Literature Review and Contribution ............................................................... 4
2.1 Resource Curse Hypothesis .......................................................................................... 4
2.2 Mechanism and Channels of Resource Curse ............................................................ 5
2.2.1 Dutch Disease Hypothesis ....................................................................................... 6
2.2.2 Capital Accumulation Effect.................................................................................... 8
2.3 Theoretical Description for the Dutch Disease and Capital Accumulation ............. 9
2.3.1 Pre-Boom Equilibrium ................................ ............................................................ 9
2.3.2 Effects of a Boom: Resource Movement Effect .................................................... 10
2.3.3 Effects of a Boom: Spending Effect ...................................................................... 11
2.3.4 Intertemporal Effect: Capital Accumulation Effect ............................................... 11
2.4 Contributions of this Study ........................................................................................ 12
Chapter III Empirics ........................................................................................................ 15
3.1 Key Variables ............................................................................................................... 15
3.2 Methodology for a VAR Model Estimation .............................................................. 18
3.2.1 Data Property ......................................................................................................... 18
3.2.2 Model Specification ............................................................................................... 19
3.3 Estimation Outcomes and Interpretations ............................................................... 20
3.3.1 Indonesia ............................................................................................................... 20
3.3.2 Lao PDR ................................................................................................................ 21
3.3.3 Malaysia................................................................................................................. 22
3.3.4 Myanmar ................................................................................................................ 22
3.3.5 Summary and Interpretations................................................................................. 23
3.4 Policy Implications ................................ ...................................................................... 24
Chapter IV Dutch Disease and Public Financial Management in Lao PDR ............... 26
4.1 Natural Resource Development in Lao Economy .................................................... 26
4.1.1 Outline of Lao Economy ...................................................................................... 26
4.1.2 Presence of Natural Resource Sectors in Lao Economy ....................................... 27
4.2 Public Financial Management for Resource Revenues in Lao PDR ...................... 29
4.2.1 Budget Structure and Presence of Resource Revenues ......................................... 30
4.2.2 Challenges in Public Financial Management ........................................................ 30
4.2.3 Proposal to Establish Natural Resource Funds for Lao PDR ................................ 32
Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................................... 38
References ............................................................................................................................... 41
Figure & Table ........................................................................................................................ 45
Appendix .................................................................................................................................85, 指導教員 : 田口博之, text, application/pdf},
 school = {埼玉大学},
 title = {Macroeconomic Management for Sustainable Development in the Selected Resource-rich ASEAN Economies: Lessons from experienced countries to Lao PDR},
 year = {2019},
 yomi = {キンサモン, スックウィサン}
}